In the competition programs, “help” conversations are frequently experienced between the servers and the contestants. How reliable is it, in fact, to rely on contest servers? Let’s look for the answer to this question together.
Imagine that you have reached the finals of a competition. Let’s say this contest is Techannels X competition. We have three envelopes in the final. There’s a big prize in one of these envelopes. “The channels, please help me out.“
Let’s say you chose the orange one from the blue, green and orange envelopes. What happened in the remaining two envelopes is unknown. Then we opened the blue envelope to help you, the Galaxy Note10 + you see here. So the grand prize is still in one of the two envelopes. You have been given the right to change the envelope if you wish. Should you change the envelope?
Do you think your chances are 50%?
At first, glance, when you make a choice, your chances seem to be 50%, regardless of whether or not you change them. Ultimately, the prize is either in your envelope or another envelope. Even though the situation seems to be the case, in reality, the situation is much different.
In fact, in our first choice, there is a 33% chance that there will be a grand prize in the envelope we choose. So the prize is in the other envelopes with a 66% probability. When we insist on the envelope we choose, we actually insist on a 33% probability. So changing the envelope is a more logical solution.
This question is basically similar, but derives from a gated competition instead of an envelope and is called the Monty Hall paradox or the Monty Hall problem. The point that changes the job here is that the server knows what’s behind the gates. The server never throws the big prize when he opens the envelope. The prize always takes place in the competition. In the simplest case, the situation becomes “the prize in the envelope you chose first or in the other two envelopes”.
In this example, the proportions are very close, so maybe it’s confusing, so let’s increase the sample. Let’s say there are 100 envelopes here and we chose one. Then our chances of winning are reduced to 1%. In such a case, it is easier to select the other 99 envelopes when we are told mı Is the remaining 99 envelopes selected? Zarf. Returning to the first competition example, the excitement of the competition is about finding the right envelope. In the first stage, if you said, Find one of the envelopes without a big prize, you get the prize ödül, people would be more comfortable and that tension would disappear.
So if you believe that the server is well-intentioned, it is always better to accept the server’s offer to change the envelope. If you believe the server is neutral, this strategy doesn’t always win, but it can double your chances of winning.